Election Statistics Put BJP in Advantageous Position at Bagda in Bengal Bypolls

If the statistics of the last two major elections are of any significance, BJP is in an advantageous position in the forthcoming bypoll for Bagda Assembly constituency in West Bengal scheduled on July 10.

The bypoll at Bagda, in North 24 Parganas District, one of the seven Assembly constituencies under Bangaon Lok Sabha, is all set to be a four-cornered contest between BJP’s Binay Kumar Biswas, Trinamool Congress’ Madhuparna Thakur, the All India Forward Bloc’s Gour Biswas and the Congress’ Ashok Halder.

Incidentally, Madhuparna Thakur is the niece of BJP’s two-time Lok Sabha member from Bangaon and the Union Minister of State for Ports, Shipping and Waterways Shantanu Thakur.

They hail from the Thakur family, which was the founding family of the Matua Mahasangha, the biggest association of the Backward Class Matua community who came as refugees to West Bengal from Bangladesh after Partition.

At Bagda, Matua voters have been the deciding factor in many elections.

Now, going by the statistics of the 2021 West Bengal Assembly elections and the recently-concluded Lok Sabha elections, the BJP candidates were comfortably ahead in Bagda.

In the 2021 Assembly polls the BJP’s Biswajit Das won by a margin of 9,792 votes. Das resigned as MLA before the Lok Sabha polls this year and unsuccessfully contested as a Trinamool Congress candidate from Bangaon Lok Sabha.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls Das trailed from Bagda by a massive margin of 20,614 votes. So going by simple statistics the BJP is well ahead of its competitors.

However, there are two factors that the BJP will have to keep in mind for the bypoll for Bagda.

The first factor is the bloodline of the Trinamool Congress candidate. Considering the status of the Thakur family among the Matuas, Madhuparna Thakur will obviously try to take full advantage of it.

Second, in any bye-election, especially if it is for an Assembly constituency, the ruling party is always at an advantageous position unless there is a massive underlying anti-incumbency wave.

However, considering the history of poll-related violence, the Election Commission of India has decided to deploy 15 companies of the Central Armed Police Forces for Bagda, which is the maximum among all four Assembly constituencies going for polls on July 10.